The Decline in Birth Rates

Published on May 1, 2025

The fertility rate is declining everywhere in the Western world. The lowest fertility rate in Europe is in Spain: it stands at 1.16 children per woman.

In France, the fertility rate is 1.79 children per woman — the highest in Europe — but it remains below the rate of 2.1 necessary for population replacement. Furthermore, even though this is another topic for discussion, I don't think this European "top ranking" is due to the "French."

In this article, I will express my hypotheses about the causes of declining birth rates in the West.

The Use and Evolution of Contraception

The pill arrived in the early 1970s in France. This changed everything: women could suddenly choose when they would have children.

The use of condoms has also increased over the past twenty years. I suspect that condoms were much less used at the end of the 20th century, due to the association of HIV with the homosexual community. "I'm not gay, I don't need condoms" must have been a much more common phrase forty years ago.

The arrival of new contraceptive methods like the IUD or implant has also helped control fertility. Some women who couldn't tolerate the pill were able to turn to these alternative methods.

Abortion was legalized in 1975. About 600 abortions take place every day, on average, in France.

Over fifty years, all these methods have allowed women better control over their fertility. The use of certain methods has fluctuated according to periods, like that of the pill which has declined in recent years following various scandals.

But, all methods combined, contraceptive use has increased.

The Consequences Over Time

Since the 1970s, the birth rate has gradually declined. Social norms have evolved slowly, without us realizing it. In the early 1980s, it was probably frowned upon to be 30 years old and not have children. Today, this has become the norm, and it seems strange, on the contrary, to have a child "so young" at 23.

This change happened gradually. Women experience much less pressure at 25 to have children. Fifty years earlier, without all these contraceptive methods, there must have been a large number of unwanted births. It's impossible to have precise statistics on this subject, because if you ask your mother, she will never admit to you thirty years later: "You weren't wanted, I didn't want you, but once you arrived, I was very happy."

I wouldn't be surprised if 30 to 40% of births weren't really desired but just "accepted." Once pregnant, that was it, you had to deal with it. And once the first baby was born, the desire came for the second (and third). Whereas now, the first baby is almost always wanted. We no longer have this forced desire that comes over us.

And this has a drastic effect on human behavior. We function by mimicry, we follow others. If, at 30, no one around us has children, we don't want to have them either.

Conversely, if at 25, 55% of people (official figures in 1980, 37% in 1990) have children — by choice or following an unwanted pregnancy — this makes you want to do the same, to start a family. The majority of women had children, and humans want to do like the majority.

It's sad but that's how it is.

Responsibility, Women's Kryptonite

Any man will have noticed this in his life: women flee from responsibilities. Taking responsibility for one's actions — it's difficult.

A child is a big responsibility, it's a commitment for at least twenty years. Thanks to contraception, women now have the choice — and if you give them the choice, they will flee from responsibilities.

Since social norms are now OK with not having children, a woman can more easily delay conception or not have children at all.

Add to this that over the past 30 years, the pace of life has evolved enormously. Thanks to the Internet, we all have unlimited entertainment at our fingertips. Tourism and the airline network have expanded considerably — and not only have they expanded but the prices are derisory. You can visit a European capital for less than €50, or make a round trip to the other end of the world for less than €1000.

These are choices that weren't possible to make 40 years ago. If you offer a woman a little weekend in Rome or taking care of a baby — not only is one of the two activities much cooler — but above all it involves much fewer risks and responsibilities. I understand this choice of wanting to live and "enjoy life" rather than take responsibility for things you can do "later."

This choice wasn't possible 40 years ago. You had the choice between having a barbecue, bowling, or taking care of a baby. Most evenings were spent reading the newspaper or listening to the radio. It's still less fun than spending 3 weeks in Thailand or doing a road trip in California.

At 25, when you see on Instagram a friend on a camel in Egypt, another on a scooter in Thailand, and a third posting a story with her baby in her arms and an emoji on her face... you don't really want to be the third one. It's sad, but that's how it is.

Forty years earlier, if at 25 you spent a dinner with girlfriends, one explaining her great night out at the club last weekend, and the other talking about setting up the newborn's room — you would have wanted to be the second rather than the first.

Once the child is there, women discover for the first time in their lives unconditional love. But if you give them the choice, they won't discover what it is and won't want children. How many women regret having had a child? Each time, we see their behavior completely change following the birth of their child. They discover a reason to live. It's beautiful to observe.

The Losers

Today, it's sad to say, but women who have children early are still often the losers, or at least, the less "successful" ones.

When you're a young woman of 25, all the women around you don't have children. The only one who does is the loser from middle school with whom you've kept some contact. So it doesn't make you dream of having children — you don't want to look like the loser. You project more onto your 27-year-old friend who just graduated, with a good job and who has time and money to go out and travel, further amplifying the fact of not wanting children.

40 years ago, it was simply normal life.

Conclusion

This was a contrarian opinion. I don't think at all that the decline in birth rates is due to economic factors, the housing crisis, the climate "crisis," daycare places, the extension of studies, the increase in living costs, or any other factor.

I think it's much simpler than that.

The various developments in contraception have had consequences on the decline in birth rates in the long term.

Technological progress has allowed humans to do things much more exciting than changing their baby's diapers.

I want to emphasize that I certainly do not question contraceptive methods or any other progress. I only want to note that certain progress, though revolutionary, also has drawbacks and that we will have to learn to deal with them. Nothing is perfect.